2 former US Treasury Secretaries just shared the biggest risks that keep them up at night
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REUTERS/Hyungwon Kang
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On deck were former US Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. David Rubenstein, the co-CEO of Carlyle Group moderated.
And of course, Rubenstein asked the two gentlemen a derivitive of the most important question of the conference: "What is the biggest risk to markets you see outside the US?"
Remember, as with all Wall Street conferences, we're here for a long hard risk assesment.
So here goes.
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- Rubin said that his big worry is China. He said that when you get Chinese economists alone, they can speak candidly, and admit that they're more uncertain about the future.
- China has reverted back to relying on investment to stimulate growth. "I'm not saying where it will come out, but I'll say there's a lot more complexity to come out in the shorter term," Rubin said.
- Summers also put China on his worry list, saying he sees a lot of risk there over the next three years. He also deviated a little bit from the topic and turned back to the US.
- "Political risk driving huge economic risk is something that I always thought we talked about in connection with emerging markets, and now I think it's something that could happen in the US," Summers explained.
- "Populism taking over and leading to huge instability... I don't think it's a great risk but I think it's a risk that's not priced in to markets."
And truly, it's the risk that isn't priced in, big or small, that will hit us the hardest.
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