2 former US Treasury Secretaries just shared the biggest risks that keep them up at night

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larry summers

REUTERS/Hyungwon Kang

Larry Summers

Business Insider is at the SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas for the next two days, and the first session just kicked off.

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On deck were former US Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. David Rubenstein, the co-CEO of Carlyle Group moderated.

And of course, Rubenstein asked the two gentlemen a derivitive of the most important question of the conference: "What is the biggest risk to markets you see outside the US?"

Remember, as with all Wall Street conferences, we're here for a long hard risk assesment.

So here goes.

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  • Rubin said that his big worry is China. He said that when you get Chinese economists alone, they can speak candidly, and admit that they're more uncertain about the future.
  • China has reverted back to relying on investment to stimulate growth. "I'm not saying where it will come out, but I'll say there's a lot more complexity to come out in the shorter term," Rubin said.
  • Summers also put China on his worry list, saying he sees a lot of risk there over the next three years. He also deviated a little bit from the topic and turned back to the US.
  • "Political risk driving huge economic risk is something that I always thought we talked about in connection with emerging markets, and now I think it's something that could happen in the US," Summers explained.
  • "Populism taking over and leading to huge instability... I don't think it's a great risk but I think it's a risk that's not priced in to markets."

And truly, it's the risk that isn't priced in, big or small, that will hit us the hardest.